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| Asteroid Impact Monitoring: Status and Predictions |
| Presentation Time: Monday, 1:50 p.m. - 2:00 p.m. |
Steven R. Chesley1
1JPL. |
| Presentation Number: 08.03 |
Monitoring the catalog of discovered objects for possibilities of
future impact is an integral part of any potentially hazardous
asteroid search program. Presently, two impact monitoring systems,
Sentry at JPL and NEODyS/CLOMON at the University of Pisa,
independently scan the asteroid catalog for potential impacts up to
100 years in the future.
The anticipated explosive growth in the rate of discovery from
forthcoming second generation surveys will force these monitoring
systems to adapt, both in terms of the increased CPU load from the
additional data and as a result of the increase in the rate of
potential impact warnings that are expected. The increased CPU load is
expected to be manageable because the new surveys' observing cadence
and lack of independent follow up will substantially ameliorate the
CPU loads predicted by a simple scaling of the discovery rate.
On the other hand, an increased rate of potential impact warnings is
an inescapable result of an increased discovery rate. Thus the rate of
warnings will spike substantially during the first 5 years or so of
any new survey, after which the warning rate will decline as
rediscoveries begin to dominate over new discoveries. The public
relations and communication challenges associated with this surge in
warnings are formidable and should be addressed as early as possible. |
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